you- "I think it was the constant assaults on this woman by Palin, Limbaugh, et al. that doomed her. In August, most voters weren't thinking about this. I think the late surge by Owens shows they resented all the interference by outsiders."
Me- Scozzafava was the candidate since at least late August. By October 13th, the Democrat was leading, just a few weeks before the election, and a week before Palin had anything to say about the race. You would have a point if the constant assaults had been occurring BEFORE the Democrat took the lead.
you- "I notice you are tossing out 'poor campaign' and 'lacking Charisma' as buzzwords now. No, it is NEVER radical reactionary politics that fail, it's the candidate's fault."
Me- How astute of you to "notice" the words I wrote. However, the guy actually does lack charisma. And when interviewed by the local newspaper, he was so woefully unprepared to answer questions, that he apparently complained he should have been given the questions in advance.
you- "Guy, I voted Republican in every election since 1980. I even voted for McCain. I would not vote for ANY of the current GOP nominees right now, whom I consider a pack of religious crazies."
Me- Do you want a medal or a chest to pin it on?
The people of NY23 can choose a more conservative candidate if they want one. Just as San Francisco can have Pelosi. You're the one trying to control the representation of other people here. |
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"you guys"? I think few (probably none) of us live in NY23 or had any hand in choosing their candidates. According to available polls, Scozzafava never had support of more than 35% of the people in the district (as far back as August).
She lost because she was a liberal candidate, unacceptable to the people of NY23. That's why about 45% of the people of that district voted for Hoffman, despite the political mess, his lacking charisma, and his poor campaign.
You're right that this seat "never should have been in play to start with." If party bosses hadn't chosen a liberal candidate, who polled low from the start, it wouldn't have been.
Me- Quite the contrary, I think it was the constant assaults on this woman by Palin, Limbaugh, et al. that doomed her. In August, most voters weren't thinking about this. I think the late surge by Owens shows they resented all the interference by outsiders.
I notice you are tossing out "poor campaign" and "lacking Charisma" as buzzwords now. No, it is NEVER radical reactionary politics that fail, it's the candidate's fault.
Guy, I voted Republican in every election since 1980. I even voted for McCain. I would not vote for ANY of the current GOP nominees right now, whom I consider a pack of religious crazies. |
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"Republicans started trying to purge their own in the name of idealogical purity...
Probably this will go back to the Red column in 2010, but it never should have been in play to start with, and only was because you guys insisted in putting up an intolerant outsider as your candidate"
"you guys"? I think few (probably none) of us live in NY23 or had any hand in choosing their candidates. According to available polls, Scozzafava never had support of more than 35% of the people in the district (as far back as August).
She lost because she was a liberal candidate, unacceptable to the people of NY23. That's why about 45% of the people of that district voted for Hoffman, despite the political mess, his lacking charisma, and his poor campaign.
You're right that this seat "never should have been in play to start with." If party bosses hadn't chosen a liberal candidate, who polled low from the start, it wouldn't have been. |
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"Excellent analysis but this was your only point that I am cautious of accepting. Scozzafava was an extreme leftist Republican and all across our nation we see that the grassroots GOP conservative base has had it with sellout moderates and liberal DIABLOS. In this political race Owens was actually the more conservative candidate over Scozzafava. It is just as likely that Owens would still have won if the conservative base stayed once again as they have been doing since 2006 in elections. Ultimately we will never know, but I am glad that this Democrat endorsing "Republican" DIABLO WITCH (I'd prefer another name that rhymnes with it) will never be a congressman."
Scozzafava was endorsed by the NRA and supported the Bush Tax Cuts and opposed Cap and Trade. She sensibly realizes that Abortion is here to stay after 30 million women have had them. In short, she's a sensible, moderate Republican who is not a religious fanatic. That describes the GOP in New York, California, Illinois and probably most of the country where they didn't film "Deliverance".
"Squeal like a pig, boy!"
What the GOP has to consider is that elections are NOT won on the fringes. They are won in the middle with people who aren't partisans, probably only make up their minds in the last few days of an election, and vote purely on kitchen table issues. If the GOP insists on nominating extremists like Hoffman, they are going to be looking at Democrats in Congress for a long time. |
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With most of the precients in...
...Hoffman is behind by 4269 votes. It really is hard to see how he could catch up with what is left to be counted. I still cannot get why 6000+ voters would vote for Scozzafava? This to me does not make any sense at all.
Me- It doesn't? It strikes me that these 6000 people were not going to let Captain Oxycotin and the Retarded Flight Attendent tell them who to vote for....
Dede was probably the only legitimate candidate. She had represented this area in the state assembly for years while Hoffman and Owens came in from the outside...
Bottom line, if the GOP wants to retake Congress, they can't do it by nominating extremists...
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"Nerve-wracking But Obama apparently thought this seat could be picked up easily. Yet, only after the Republican dropped out and endorsed the Democrat does it come out almost even. If the seat is lost, it can be picked up in 2 years, adding to the many other wins of 2010."
Me- Really, you know what Obama was thinking? Actually, Obama probably didn't pay any attention to this race until the Republicans started trying to purge their own in the name of idealogical purity...
Probably this will go back to the Red column in 2010, but it never should have been in play to start with, and only was because you guys insisted in putting up an intolerant outsider as your candidate...
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...likewise I have enjoyed your posts and analysis. I especially like the following:
"What I do know is that
1. Dede would never have won given her track record.
2. It is better to have a Democrat win than a turncoat like Dede win and give the Democrats cover.
3. Without Sarah Palin there would have been no attention paid to this race and Owens would have won big."
Totally agree, and yes I can sympathize with wanting a new conservative party, but Reagan pulled it off in the GOP with hard work in 1980 and I believe we can too in 2010 and then 2012.
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Allen wrote: "If Hoffman was on the GOP ticket and without a third party candidate do you think Owens would still have beaten him? I think that would have been an unlikely scenario."
I don't know. I do know that conservatives are an endangered species in the NE US. The question is how many of Dede's supporters followed her into the Owen's camp. These are probably lost causes but you never know. Nor do I know how many of those 6500 or so of Dede's votes will be approachable next year.
What I do know is that
1. Dede would never have won given her track record.
2. It is better to have a Democrat win than a turncoat like Dede win and give the Democrats cover.
3. Without Sarah Palin there would have been no attention paid to this race and Owens would have won big.
I had forgotten about that President Reagan's 1977 comments concerning third parties that you referenced in your post to Tribeck. It is tempting sometimes but as usual Renauldus Magnus knew better.
And finally I'd like to thank you for this rational discourse. Too many of these blog comments degenerate into flame wars with the trolls.
Dave M. |
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What was the game plan in picking a woman who has absolutely nothing in common with fiscal or social conservatives. You just can't support the stimulus and card check - forget the social issues.
Hoffman is a decent guy but he didn't have to time to organize. A little charisma would have helped as well. |
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You wrote:
"however much i don't want to believe it I feel it necessary that we do not fool ourselves and must consider that this district is more liberal than we thought."
Possible, but still an unknown third party conservative candidate who was not even known until two weeks ago when endorsed by Sarah Palin comes within a few points of winning in what was still a three way race, that tells me that this district is still pretty conservative. If Hoffman was on the GOP ticket and without a third party candidate do you think Owens would still have beaten him? I think that would have been an unlikely scenario. |
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You wrote:
"The GOP must back conservative candidates but conservatives in America can't rely on the GOP. The GOP 'guard dogs' who make decisions in capital hill are OUT OF TOUCH with americans. The GOP gave us Bush who was not a real conservative and that gave us Obama.
AMERICANS, will rise up and demand a CLEAR CHOICE. The GOP should offer a clear choice between liberal (DNC) and Conservative (GOP). And when the GOP fails - and i have a feeling the GOP will fail, then a third party candidate will arise."
Tribeck I want to provide you with two speechs by Ronald Reagan in the 1970's when we conservatives were in a similar boat. The first was called, "LET THEM GO THEIR OWN WAY!" given in 1975, concerning Republican DIABLOS, you can read it here:
http://www.conservative.org/pressroom/reagan/reagan1975.asp
The second is called, "THE NEW REPUBLICAN PARTY". Here Reagan warned against forming a third party but advocated that conservatives take over the Republican Party, which was closer to conservative values. Read here:
http://www.conservative.org/pressroom/reagan/reagan1977.asp
Maybe you have read them, but if not give them a quick read. I think Reagan was right and we won in 1980 with a lot of hard work and against fierce opposition in the GOP.
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Allen wrote: "Excellent analysis but this was your only point that I am cautious of accepting. Scozzafava was an extreme leftist Republican and all across our nation we see that the grassroots GOP conservative base has had it with sellout moderates and liberal DIABLOS...".
Oh I agree entirely about Dede and what you call "DIABLOS"
But however much i don't want to believe it I feel it necessary that we do not fool ourselves and must consider that this district is more liberal than we thought. Which is why I included the point about doing the necessary teaching in the next year. It is possible to convince people but it takes time and effort. Too often conservatism only shows up during election season.
Dave M. |
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I listen to Levin too and I enjoy his passion and intelligence. Prager is always a calming voice of reason. Rush is different because going to college makes a difference, and of course using drugs can affect one's ability to be 'rational'. Having acknowledged his race baiting and nonsense - he does have 10-15 million listeners who vote for conservative ideas. This is my interest in his show. It's important that conservatives/liberals keep an eye on him because he is the reverend wright of the GOP party. Race baiting is a big business on both sides. Americans are rejecting this illness and replacing it with 'We The People' regardless of cultural background. |
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Hoffman's defeat is not a conservative loss, judging by your illogical argument I take it you are about 12? It's a good start at age 12 but when you grow up then you can understand how logic works.
Let's try and connect the dots by asking hypothetical questions to set up the hypothesis.
Hypothesis: If Obama campaigns for a candidate then his popularity and liberal agenda will be reflected by whether the candidate wins or loses.
Finding: All the candidates Obama campaigned for lost tonight.
Conclusion: Obama's popularity and liberal agenda is reflected in the failed campaigns of the candidates he supported.
Simply put: Hoffman was the candidate without a party but who got adopted by conservatives because the GOP was too out of touch to pick a winning candidate in NY23 district.
In one year you will understand better when Hoffman or someone with his ideas/policies challenges Owens.
Hopefully, Obama will campaign for Owens next year then we can test the hypothesis then. And you will have moved on to high school where your logical processes will be more developed. |
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Seriously if there is concrete evidence that Rush's comments hurt Hoffman and helped Scozzafava then I'll accept it if its true. I just think that as of tonight the case for that is up in the air. Mind you I do not listen to Rush, I am a Mark Levin fan though. I can't stand anybody on Townhall.com, save maybe Dennis Prager. |
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You wrote:
"Which brings me to my final point, Mr. Hoffman was a good conservative candidate. But he still came up short.-which implies that Newt,Steele,etc. were at least partially correct in their assessment of this district."
Excellent analysis but this was your only point that I am cautious of accepting. Scozzafava was an extreme leftist Republican and all across our nation we see that the grassroots GOP conservative base has had it with sellout moderates and liberal DIABLOS. In this political race Owens was actually the more conservative candidate over Scozzafava. It is just as likely that Owens would still have won if the conservative base stayed once again as they have been doing since 2006 in elections. Ultimately we will never know, but I am glad that this Democrat endorsing "Republican" DIABLO WITCH (I'd prefer another name that rhymnes with it) will never be a congressman. |
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Allen Caeden writes: Wednesday, November, 04, 2009 12:47 AM
Arch
You wrote:
"Conservatives had never heard of Hoffman one year ago. Look how close he came to your socialist. I don't think I would be cheer leading that result. A true sign of weakness in your party and nothing more!"
Actually, until Sarah Palin endorsed him two weeks ago nobody knew who he was! She raised him from a distant third party candidate, to being just shy of winning the election all in the face of TWO POLITICAL MACHINES. Look let me repeat it over and over, the day of the RINO is over and the conservative revolution has begun. Now let's move on and get Rubio nominate and elected as with all the other conservative GOP candidates running for 2010.
Arch says
I stand corrected. Thanks Allen! |
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The GOP must back conservative candidates but conservatives in America can't rely on the GOP. The GOP 'guard dogs' who make decisions in capital hill are OUT OF TOUCH with americans. The GOP gave us Bush who was not a real conservative and that gave us Obama.
AMERICANS, will rise up and demand a CLEAR CHOICE. The GOP should offer a clear choice between liberal (DNC) and Conservative (GOP). And when the GOP fails - and i have a feeling the GOP will fail, then a third party candidate will arise.
I strongly believe that picking Dede was the first mistake because it gave the GOP voters a false start i.e. like in relay race, if the person with the button starts a few seconds after the competition has started it costs the entire team the race because the other team members are playing catch up instead of maintaining momentum.
Hoffman was the right candidate who had to fight two opponents because the GOP dropped the ball. Then the RUSH factor needs to be discussed. I want to see if any conservative has the guts to discuss the Rush factor in the race.
Rush's insults toward Dede cost Hoffman the votes that would have helped him to play catch up successfully. The GOP/Candidates needed to tell Rush to stay quiet. Just like Obama has told Hillary to be quiet. In politics what a person says can change the dynamics of a race. Hillary is to Obama what Rush is to any GOP/Conservative candidate. They both have a strong voter influence but they are also equally dispised by americans and they have the potential to taint a candidate. |
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Allen wrote-"I still cannot get why 6000+ voters would vote for Scozzafava? This to me does not make any sense at all."
Actually it does. This happens in politics all the time after a bitter intraparty squabble.
For me it is a disappointment but not a surprise. I assumed this seat was lost when the Republican party establishment picked Dede. (btw-the Republican Party did the same thing to us out here some years back when the incumbent died in office. Their hand picked candidate lost to Lois Capps and the seat has been hers ever since)
There are a couple of lessons to be learned here.
First-pick the right candidate in the first place. A faction fight like this invites loss (and usually deservedly so).
Second-don't believe the polls. Support IN the polls for Mr. Hoffman apparently did not translate into votes AT the polls. Polls don't count. Votes do.
Which brings me to my final point, Mr. Hoffman was a good conservative candidate. But he still came up short.-which implies that Newt,Steele,etc. were at least partially correct in their assessment of this district. (OH -how I hated typing that!!)
So-
Third-do the foundational work.
I'm relieved it was this close as it gives Mr. Hoffman a solid foundation for next year. The outcome in this race demonstrates how far we still have to go regarding teaching people about conservatism v. liberalism. Dull and boring but necessary.
There's my two cents
Dave M.
Morro Bay,CA |
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You wrote:
"Conservatives had never heard of Hoffman one year ago. Look how close he came to your socialist. I don't think I would be cheer leading that result. A true sign of weakness in your party and nothing more!"
Actually, until Sarah Palin endorsed him two weeks ago nobody knew who he was! She raised him from a distant third party candidate, to being just shy of winning the election all in the face of TWO POLITICAL MACHINES. Look let me repeat it over and over, the day of the RINO is over and the conservative revolution has begun. Now let's move on and get Rubio nominate and elected as with all the other conservative GOP candidates running for 2010. |
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"In every state in which Barack Obama campaigned for a candidate, the candidate lost. Too bad he did not make it up to NY-23." |
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While I agree with you that what Scozzafava did when endorsing the Democrat showed how foolish it would have been to vote for this woman. But in the end it was a third party run, and historically they lose. The RNC wasted some $900,000 on Scozzafava who backstabbed them in the end. Hoffman's rise from a weak third place candidate two weeks ago, to just coming shy of winning while going against two political machines shows that the day of the RINOS is over! The out of nowhere conservative won over 50,000 votes, and the GOP establishment backstabbing liberal about 6,500. If the RNC is smart they will quit backing moderates and liberal DIABLOS (Democrat In All But Name Only) and now put their full backing behind solid conservative candidates in the upcoming national 2010 GOP primaries, if they don't history may repeat itself. In short I think you are reading too much of Rush Limbaugh into this. |
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Tyler writes: Wednesday, November, 04, 2009 12:34 AM
The country rejects the far right
100 years of republican rule in NY23
Conservative hero loses.
Haha
It's the end of conservatism as we know it, I feel fine.
Arch says
Conservatives had never heard of Hoffman one year ago. Look how close he came to your socialist. I don't think I would be cheer leading that result. A true sign of weakness in your party and nothing more! |
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i'd agree with your analysis in large part. not totally, but in large part.
yay. i was getting pretty bummed there, but NY-23 makes it an evening to remember.
From your perspective, keep in mind the Biblical adage: one fly ruins the whole ointment.
Hopefully marriage equality (and simple human decency) win in Maine too. |
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Play it down all u want
U guys lost bigtime with your conservative hero in a solidly red for 100 years district.
Boss Limbaugh, Palin, Hannity and Beck look fricken retarded now.
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100 years of republican rule in NY23
Conservative hero loses.
Haha
It's the end of conservatism as we know it, I feel fine. |
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did so to get back to Rush who insulted her. Public Perception was against Dede when she endorsed the democrat after vowing she was a 'solid' republican. At that point, the public perception was Dede is a back stabbing, untrustworthy, fake person and most people (regardless of party) find what she did to be repulsive.
Then Limbaugh spoke up - insulting Dede - and the public perception of negative reaction shifted from Dede as Rush became the new 'scum, untrustworthy, fake american' who voters HATE.
Limbaugh is hated more by voters than Dede so voters decided to SEND A MESSAGE TO RUSH that they think Dede is 'alright'. That HURT HOFFMAN.
IF RUSH HAD KEPT HIS BIG MOUTH SHUT then Dede voters would have voted for Hoffman because he was the next logical choice. And historically this is a republican/conservative district.
RUSH LIMBAUGH IS POISONOUS. His ego needs to be contained - I hope candidates learn that lesson before 2010 and 2012.
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Those lousy demrats made us look stupid again. This should've been the race that put Sarah on the map as a party boss. Now the libturds are gonna say she cost us and that's what you get blah blah blah. I thought the vote was in the bag! What a disappointment. How could we lose a seat that has been ours for 130 years? I say we take this all the way to the supreme court! Voter fraud is the only explanation. |
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The seat can be picked up next year...this was a special election...seat is up for re-election in 2010. |
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From RedState.com:
"The race has now been called for Democrat Bill Owens.
This is a huge win for conservatives.
“Whaaaa. . . ?” you say.
There are two big victories at work in New York’s 23rd Congressional District.
First, the GOP now must recognize it will either lose without conservatives or will win with conservatives. In 2008, many conservatives sat home instead of voting for John McCain. Now, in NY-23, conservatives rallied and destroyed the Republican candidate the establishment chose.
I have said all along that the goal of activists must be to defeat Scozzafava. Doug Hoffman winning would just be gravy. A Hoffman win is not in the cards, but we did exactly what we set out to do — crush the establishment backed GOP candidate.
And make no mistake, despite the Beltway spin, we know for certain based on statements from the local Republican parties, that they chose Scozzafava based on advice from the Washington crowd.
So we have demonstrated to the GOP that it must not take conservatives for granted. The GOP spent $900,000.00 on a Republican who dropped out and endorsed the Democrat. Were we to combine Scozzafava and Hoffman’s votes, Hoffman would have won.
Secondly, and just as importantly, there has all of a sudden been a huge movement among some activists to go the third party route. We see in NY-23 that this is not possible as third parties are not viable.
Third parties lack funding and ability for a host of reasons. Conservatives are going to have to work from within the GOP. The GOP had better pay attention.
For all intents and purposes, NY-23 is a trial run for Florida. And in Florida, the conservative candidate is operating inside the GOP. If John Cornyn and the NRSC do not want to see Florida go the way of NY-23, they better stand down."
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http://www.foxnews.com/
Oh, well; two out of three ain't bad |
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With more than 10,000 absantee ballots to count as well as counting Fulton County, we are not going to know tonight. To be honest looks like Owens will win unless Hoffman gets like 65% of the vote in each counting. But FOX News has called it for Owens. |
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...Hoffman is behind by 4269 votes. It really is hard to see how he could catch up with what is left to be counted. I still cannot get why 6000+ voters would vote for Scozzafava? This to me does not make any sense at all. |
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Most of the voting machines in the Hoffman-friendly Fulton County have been impounded after experiencing suspicious malfunctions. The impounded machines count for around 5 percent of the NY 23 vote. If those votes aren't counted, that could mean that Hoffman falls back by approximately one percent in relation to the Democrat.
Sabotage? |
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Obama shows up IN PERSON to campaign for NJ governor, complete with his name linked to Cozzine's name in the posters (I guess some democrats are dumb enough to think Obama is on the ballot too - go figure!).
And the voters decided - NO WE CAN'T!
This is worse than the Olympics, at least for the Olympics Obama made a brief presentation and then jetted back to USA. While he was reject FIRST (first round) AND FAST (ouch!) his Nobel Prize eased his wounds.
Today the BIG LOSER was Obama, and His FRAT BROTHERS IN THE WHITEHOUSE.
The frat party is about to come to a pause in 2010 and in 2010 if he manages to get re-elected, he will be a lame duck from day 1 because the house and senate will be controlled by AMERICANS who will say NO WE CAN'T dismantle this Nation with 9 trillion defecits, 10% unemployment and AID to those who wish to blow up our buildings.
Mr. President NO WE CAN'T! |
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"If Owens wins, it will be a crushing defeat to the extreme right wing of the party. Especially since NY23 has been republican for 100 years."
I guess your rabbit ears in the basement won't pick up news from VA and NJ. Crushing defeat? You mean like Corzine's?
And as far as 23 being R for 100 years. If they were going to elect a Scazzzzafaaaaa.
Who cares?
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If a crushing defeat is a 4% margin of victory for a moderate Democrat in a special off-year election after the liberal Republican drops out and endorses that Democrat...liberals have no political future. |
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Chairman Steele was right to try and 'contain' Rush Limbaugh. While other conservatives are winning Hoffman is struggling in a district that has ALWAYS voted republican. Why? Rush insulted Dede then proceeded to use his big ego to make the race about 'him and his agenda' - AMERICANS DON'T LIKE RUSH and if Hoffman loses tonight, he can blame Rush Limbaugh for 'butting in' and giving the fair minded americans a reason to vote against NOT HOFFMAN but RUSH LIMBAUGH.
Limbaugh is not good for any candidate. McCain lost about 5 points when Obama ran ads. connecting him to Rush Limbaugh.
I am a conservative who can't stand Rush's race baiting and 'operation chaos' manouvres that hurts candidates. Rush's operation chaos gave us an obama presidency and now it may give us Owens the first democrat to hold that district in over 10+ years.
RUSH LIMBAUGH mmmm mmm mmm. The candidates running should distance themselves from Rush (in private of course, in case the limbots revolt). |
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Meh...I don't see it that way. Hoffman is not a strong candidate, even though he has conservative principles. Dede sitting her name on the ballot is hurting him as well.
I would say the New Jersey Governor race was more surprising. |
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If Owens wins, it will be a crushing defeat to the extreme right wing of the party. Especially since NY23 has been republican for 100 years.
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But Obama apparently thought this seat could be picked up easily. Yet, only after the Republican dropped out and endorsed the Democrat does it come out almost even. If the seat is lost, it can be picked up in 2 years, adding to the many other wins of 2010. |
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